Not long ago I made the prediction that within the next couple of years China would be at war. It is my belief that China is now a part of the global military/industrial/government complex, and the complex needs war, because of the “relevancy” problem of obsolescence and entropy.
There has been much saber rattling (and I imagine hand wringing) about who, what and where this war is going to take place.
Nation-states such as the Philippines, Vietnam and others in the South China Sea feel they are being targeted, and they have been. However, the “Belgium” entry point into this war is none of these places. The entry point into “China’s War” is Myanmar (Burma). The event recorded in Asia Times has all the requirements of war: Honor, Interest, and Fear.
Myanmar hosted three important visitors during the week of November 28: Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State of the United States of America; Mikhail Myasnikovich, Prime Minister of Belarus; and, from China, the wisdom tooth of Siddhartha Gautama, the historical Buddha.
All war is fought over economic considerations (interest) and fought by people with little, or no, economic considerations (honor). Fear is a future that doesn’t exist and the fear in this article is the disappearance of that area which the 410 families occupy.
There are 5 villages in the dam area of Myitsone Hydropower Station, totaling 2,146 people of 410 households.
It is not that the people who are going to be displaced are fearful, at least not yet. The Fear in this movement of energy (war) is in the story, of the 410 households, of past honor and continued interest that creates fear, the fear of the unreasonable.
To recap: less than 20,000 people are affected by all the dams; at Myitsone, 2,146 people.
“By contrast, the Three Gorges Dam required the resettlement of 1.2 million people.” Bold type is mine.
This “unreasonableness” is why there is going to be war.
Opponents of large scale hydro projects and the taming of wild rivers will find much to dislike in the Myitsone project. And no doubt the Myanmar junta could have gotten a better economic deal out of the PRC. But hydropower is the region’s destiny and, as an economic development scheme, the project anchored by Myitsone is perhaps one of the more professional and responsible things China is doing inside Myanmar.
The “honor” of the Chinese people is at stake here, and it will be because they look at the situation as a situation without honor that eventually a war will develop. It may be a war that the leadership of Myanmar will first agree to, but it will be war. It is a war that will (unless perhaps stopped in Burma), eventually, affect the South China Seas.
Eventually the people of the South China Sea will understand that China will simply do what it wants, unless honor can be maintained, and honor cannot be maintained from a position of weakness.
China will have its electrical power from Myanmar and all the oil of the disputed islands in the South China Sea, but it will be a matter of honor, interest and fear, when this happens.
It’s the manners of history.