A Pause for Negotiations in the Israeli-Hamas Conflict

If no one seems to want to serve as mediator, it is because there is such little room for negotiation. It is not ideology but strategy that locks each side into place.

And what is that strategy?

One of Hamas’ main goals in this current round of fighting is to retain enough Fajr-5 rockets to allow it to threaten the Israeli heartland, the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem corridor. If they succeed, Hamas will have gained a significant lever in its relations with the Israelis.

So at least one half of the strategy that locks each side into place is Hamas’s want of a lever to use against Israel. And to obtain that lever Hamas has used Gaza to created another “Cuban missile crises” that threatens war between Israel and Hamas?

Hamas has used its economy, much like Russia did in Cuba, to plant missiles that can reach deep into Israeli territory, and now believes Israel will let these missiles stay, because war will be too costly for Israel to accomplish its strategy of obtaining a missile-free zone around its nation state.

On the bright side, finally something is happening in the Middle East that Americans can understand, it’s a Cuban Missile Crisis. Gaza is Cuba and Hamas (although a local body) is Cuba’s “enabler” Russia.

The problem (and there are many) for anyone comparing that which is happening in Gaza today and what happened in Cuba during the Cuban missile crisis is understanding what economy Hamas is working from. The strategy is basically the same, but the economies that the strategy is based on are different.

The Cuban missile crisis was resolved when the economy (and everything else) of Russia was threatened with extinction and Israel has done all it can to extinguish Hamas’s economy time and time again. And while the missiles being installed in Gaza don’t represent as great a monetary value as those Russia installed in Cuba, Hamas still needs some kind of an economy to be able to purchase these missiles.

It seems, as Israel destroys Hamas’s economy, Hamas was able to use an outside economy to install its missiles in Gaza. Given Israel’s control over Gaza’s economy, Hamas was either able to build these missile installation using Israeli money or an outside economy actually built those missile installations.

So Israel basically has three choices. It can build another wall around Israel using the Iron Dome and isolate Israel even more, continue a destroy/build scenario with Hamas and let the conditions evolve, or it can go after the economy that installed the missiles in Gaza even if that means its own economy.

The problem with the third option is that it looks more and more like WWIII, Chief Rabbi Sacks: “I think it’s Got to Do with Iran”.

In other words, after a civil war, which started in Iraq, picked up by the Arab Spring, and continues into Syria; the economies of those fighting the civil war merge, like it did in North America.

Israel’s attack on Gaza could be an attack on this new economy that is emerging out of the fighting, and I am sure the world is very interested in this new economy.

As Iran has been helping the fighters on both sides of the civil war, Iran is probably just as much involved (or evolved) in this new civil war economy as anyone, including Egypt.

via A Pause for Negotiations in the Israeli-Hamas Conflict | Stratfor.

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