Zen at War on the Rocks on China and Avoiding War

A dangerous gap between American assumptions of Soviet intentions and the reality of these intentions came to light when in 1983 the Reagan administration discovered to their alarm that Soviet leaders had interpreted the NATO exercise Abel Archer 83 as preparations for a real, imminent nuclear first strike on the USSR and ordered Soviet nuclear forces on high alert.

Ha! Of course it was an equally shock to the Reagan administration when they found out Reagan didn’t, like the Russians, believe in MAD.

Of course, Russia actually did believe in MAD. It was in their interest to do so.

However, it wasn’t until they met Reagan that they realized the US didn’t.

Talk about fear trumping honor and interest 🙂

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The Incumbent Force

If you are a mastermind and think of the Tea Party as an insurgent force trying to change an incumbent force, then you have a warning for the incumbent forces (Senators such as Senator John McCain).

The warning to these Senators is a call to learn and remember their lessons from their past dealings with the insurgency. I mean, in a revolution its doctors, lawyers, then Congressmen who get the ax. The lesson goes out to all congressmen and the lessons show your vulnerability to an attack.

Like most systems that have an insurgency force inside them, the incumbent force operating inside Congress has taught the insurgency how to win. Through the effort of Congressmen like Ted Cruz, the insurgent force knows how to defeat the incumbancy in Congress. You defeat the incumbancy by reducing the government to essential personnel only, and then refuse to pay our debt.

It’s a one-two punch. First you eliminate most of those who could help in a crisis such as this (employed people) , then you create a crisis (a government refusing to pay its debt) that can only be save by people working for a living.

With the knowledge on how to defeat a force comes power, and the great thing about power is that you can use it fast or slow.

So as things stand, it is not how (move the government towards default) the Tea Party is going to Act (OODA) nor if the Tea Party is going to Act (Ted Cruz still has his follower’s support and so will Act according to the implicit rules of the Party), the question is only when the Tea Party is going to Act.  

With this extra power obtained in the knowledge on how to destroy the incumbent force, the insurgency can afford to wait, but not for too long. While their champions Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio may increase in power, the more power their leaders have the less incentive, because the Tea Party is going to suffer just as bad as the rest of the US, but ultimately there will be another revolution.

In the end, the Tea Party will have destroyed the US economy using the end, ways and means of Ted Cruz.

The Tea Party is made up of the same people who thought faith-based initiatives would work to take care of those in real need. Faith Based initiatives turned out to be a complete failure, and so will the Tea Parties effort in trying to keep the US economy going on faith. A default on the debt would crush what is left of our economy.

The incumbent force in Congress hasn’t yet expressed a strategy on how to keep this hurt from continuing and expanding into other parts of the government. I don’t think most in Congress even know how close we came to losing our economy, just like the Soviet Union….

So the US Congress (at least until they find a strategy to at least control if not defeat the insurgency) has a need for the Tea Party to disappear. If those incumbents in Congress want to keep their heads.

In other words, and I am sure Boyd would agree, the insurgency (represented in the form of Ted Cruz) needs to be rolled-up inside of itself and disappear. Which is easier said than done, especially now with this increase of power coming from the weakness in our system.

On the other hand, I really don’t see anything happening to stop the hurt the people of the USA are about to go through

Much of the problem is that the War is on a front that is not easy to Observe (OODA). The people of the US are under stress in their workspace, and this stress blinds them.

Which is a great advantage for the insurgency in 4GW.