Kurds protest against Turkey as IS advances on Kobane

Turkish troops and tanks have lined the border but have not crossed into Syria.

I have a hard time thinking that Turkey is against the ideal of a Caliphate. More likely to me, Turkey is against the idea that the Caliphate shaping up will not be a part of the once great Ottoman Empire.

The USA is not now fighting a war against a Caliphate in the Middle East. The USA is fighting a war against the opposition to its homeland.

A Caliphate in the Middle East is not against the interest of the USA, if we convert to natural gas and defend the homeland (the F35 and missile defense). There is a huge anti-war movement shaping-up in the USA that is threatening to move the US’s line of defense towards the Pacific (Obama’s Pivot) and South America, and away for the MENA.

I think my saying that the fight in the Middle East is now against ISIS, but not one against a Caliphate, is also true of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). I am sure both Turkey and KSA are more than willing to battle ISIS, if it means that the Caliphate forming will be more to their image, than that of the Levant.

Perhaps getting into the fight will mean more to Turkey when the Kurds get their own nation-state, which, because of the oil the Kurds hold and the Kurdish population in Turkey, will not be in Turkey’s interest.

In the mean time, Turkey will take advantage of the situation, as that advantage becomes available.

Look out Kurds, get your shit together, because the big-boys are a-coming. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the fire!

via BBC News – Kurds protest against Turkey as IS advances on Kobane.

Kerry tries to soothe relations with Saudi Arabia but tensions evident

Riyadh views Syria\’s war as a critical contest for regional supremacy between a Shi\’ite coalition backed by Iran and a pro-Western Sunni alliance of Gulf countries, Turkey and Egypt.

I was once told by an Arab in the Maghreb that you can’t believe anything an Arab tells you in private, but you can believe everything he tells you in public.

I am not sure, but once you back your words up in public, it all goes into The Book. The words then becomes generational, and the Saudis, by location, have to think generationally.

So the above quote, is probably true. I know I believe it true.

For some reason, since 9/11, in the critical contest for regional supremacy between a shiite coalition backed by Iran and a pro-Western Sunni alliance of Gulf countries, Turkey and Egypt (Israel); the Shiites have been winning.

After a while, and upon deep reflection, it starts to seem that maybe Obama has something to do with this. While the last administration showed themselves to be holding hands with the Saudis, this doesn’t seem to be the case for this administration.

Yeah, Obama took a lot of heat, from those that hate him, for bowing to the King, but I am not sure that there has been much hand holding in the Saudi/American relationship.

I am also not sure what this all means, but sooner or later, and I am afraid, the King may get the feeling that we just don’t seem to appreciate him much anymore. At least we didn’t appreciate the family of Saudi, as much as the family of Bush did.

This less appreciation may have had something to do with most of the people on the same planes that wanted to see the crafts hit the towers were Saudi, but I am no expert.

The feelings of the King may be that we are pivoting away from him and towards the Indo-Pacific. The King should not worry. I am sure China will more than embrace and hold hands with you.

I am sure the Chinese would like nothing more than to see you through your troubles. They have no problems in the way you govern your people’s lands, as long as you protect the Chinese coming into the region, and there will be millions.

But that number (millions) will probably just depend on how well you are able to protect them. The Pakistanis are doing a pretty good job, but then they have an incentive. 🙂

via Kerry tries to soothe relations with Saudi Arabia but tensions evident | Reuters.

Turkey eyes Iraq as it banks on exports

It comes despite tensions with Iraq, whose prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has declared Turkey a « hostile state », and with Iran, to which Ankara has this year sold billions of dollars worth of gold, but which is on the opposing side to Turkey in the Syria conflict.

Ah yes. Export to Iraq continue to happen despite tensions. I think most of the world (not sure Financial Times is the best place for world views) understands that Turkey’s exports to and imports from “Iraq” are the tensions between Turkey and Iraq, at least economically.

Much of my analysis of the world depends on my theory of war. I believe all war is about economic considerations, and fought by people with little economic considerations. For war to break-out between Turkey, Iraq, and eventually Iran someone has to get the guys with little economic considerations to start fighting. In the Middle East there doesn’t seem to be a shortage of those willing to fight, especially for “no” economic considerations.

I don’t think Financial Times wants to hear about that one, so they are bias away from truth, but are at least fact based when they analyze how an economy like Turkey’s distributes itself in the world.

In other words they fudge when they use Nouri al-Maliki’s name in their article, but use the data of imports and exports to make it seem like it is all tied together.

The reason this story has no ties to truth: Turkey isn’t really dealing with Iraq, only a small Kurdish part of it. This Kurdish part is both Sunni and Shia, and because of their ties, the Kurds become the “middleman” between Turkey and Iraq.

Financial Times should stick with the story that Iraq is still not one State, even after years of civil war, and name the people Turkey is actually dealing with, leaving out Nouri al Maliki’s.

Or the Financial Times should create another story that says Nouri al-Maliki is in control of his country, and mentioned his name in this article, in context as the person Turkey is dealing with.

I mean, the Financial Times’s article is the first story, but to me the way it is written makes the article seem like the second story.

The Financial Times’s article is truthful enough, but if a choke point develops in “Kurdistan” for the products Turkey imports into and exports from Iraq (and eventually into Iran, Syria), I wonder how much incentive Turkey will have in a few generation to “un-choke” it.

If a choke point develops  I think there would be enough people, with little economic consideration, to fight.

And fight they will, if they are not given economic considerations.

At the time of choke points, I doubt Europe will look anymore tempting to Turkey, generations from now, as exports from Iraq is mostly in the form of oil, and the “choke-point” will affect Europe, Asia, as well as Turkey.

via Turkey eyes Iraq as it banks on exports « ACTURCA.

SYRIA When Military Intervention Makes Sense

Great powers intervene when they can.  It’s as simple as that.  Good and bad don’t play into it.

via Thomas P.M. Barnett’s Globlogization – Blog – Time’s Battleland: SYRIA When Military Intervention Makes Sense.

Exactly! The Dr. is in the house on this one. In this instance “can” is in the center of  the nexus of three domains, location, connections, and security. There is no oil at the location, the connections are too complicated, and the security is in jeopardy from too many directions.

Throw a rock in any direction, not towards the government nor the Syrian rebels, and you will hit someone who would like to go to war, but they can’t.